What is in Your Crystal Ball?
Kevin F Clune, CLP
What are your predictions for 2014 or would you like to take a stab at a vision of the world 50 years from now in 2064? The media has a heyday every January reporting the various forecasts for the New Year as gleaned from scientists, economists, commentators, & political leaders. While this is very entertaining and somewhat informative, I often wonder whom to believe.
Naturally, I gravitate to any news that would be beneficial to my interests:
- Do you predict an increase in equipment acquisition?
- Will there be growth of business expansion projects?
- Is there a larger demand for equipment finance?
I found a Bloomberg Article quoting economists who cite “quickening U.S. growth this year” and “headwinds to growth may be abating”. The stellar credentials of those interviewed perked my interest but the “glass half empty” side of me wondered what they have to lose & if there should be consequences if they are wrong?
Wanting to explore a little deeper and find news that was more specific and personal, I stumbled upon an article in a leasing industry publication that interviewed leaders in the equipment finance sector. They are seeing “optimism among small business owners” resulting in “strong new business volume for lessors”.
This outlook was affirmed by a January 12, 2014 Wall Street Journal Online piece titled, “Why Business Investment Could Break Out”, which stated “… more companies appear likely to step up their spending.” Later in the same article, it added “Companies also will need to replace machinery that is getting old, in the same way many Americans are spending money to replace aging cars.”
The most incredible and favorable prediction by far was made in 1964 by famous scientist, Isaac Asimov, of what the world would look like in 2014. I found it to be amazingly accurate… and “my glass half full” side felt that it did bode well for the need for capital equipment finance.
Writing in the New York Times to coincide with the 1964 World’s Fair that was held in New York, Asimov imagined
a world that you might partly recognize today, a world where:
- Gadgetry will continue to relieve mankind of tedious jobs.
- Communications will become sight-sound and you will see as well as hear the person you telephone.
- The (computer) screen can be used not only to see the people you call but also for studying documents and photographs and reading passages from books.
- Synchronous satellites, hovering in space will make it possible for you to direct-dial any spot on earth, including the weather stations in Antarctica.
- Men will continue to withdraw from nature in order to create an environment that will suit them better.
- Robots will be neither common nor very good in 2014, but they will be in existence.
- The world of A.D. 2014 will have few routine jobs that cannot be done better by some machine than by any human being.
Whether it is leading economists, equipment finance business owners, or professors of science, it is part of man’s nature to listen to experts when they look into their crystal balls (O.K., maybe not equipment finance types) and hang onto the more favorable predictions. When I put all of this in my proverbial “pipe”, I thought that if all true, my only task ahead is to make the case about the benefits of a lease to finance capital equipment, communicate an effective message to potential customers, and follow through on commitments.
In the end, it is probably best to do what each of us can to create the future we want and to hope for the best. In the meantime, if you see an equipment transaction for one of your customers or a need for additional capital equipment in your crystal ball, we at Clune & Company would love to answer your questions about the benefits of a lease finance option.
Happy 2014,
Kevin F. Clune, CLP
Clune & Company
